SNOHOMISH COUNTY HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

Home Prices, Market Trends, Graphs Video and Infographics

SNOHOMISH COUNTY HOUSING MARKET AT A GLANCE

snohomish county housing market report

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3 KEY INDICATORS
Snohomish County Housing Market

  1. SALES ACTIVITY INTENSITY:
    • 57.8% (SURGE)
  2. INTEREST RATE:
    • 6.4% (MANAGEABLE)
  3. INVENTORY LEVEL:
    • 1.3 Month (SHORTAGE)

THE BIG DEAL
Pending sales have jumped dramatically—from 783 in September last year to a whopping 952 this year. Sales activity intensity has also kicked up a notch into "surge" territory. This means demand is climbing fast, and homes are moving off the market quicker than you can say “sold!” Whether you're buying or selling, get ready to move quickly—Snohomish County's market is heating up again!

Enjoy The Snohomish County Market Report Video

Snohomish County Housing Market Report for October 2024: Rate Cuts Ignite a Surge in Pending Sales


Welcome to your October 2024 Snohomish County Housing Market Report! The big news this month is the Federal Reserve’s decision to lower interest rates by 50 basis points, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. This marks the first significant rate cut in over four years, and it’s already creating ripple effects in the housing market. Mortgage rates, which peaked around 7.75% last year, have now dipped to an average of 6.12%, providing long-awaited relief for homebuyers and sparking renewed activity in the market.

Let’s break it down: pending sales are up by 21.5% compared to last year, and the market’s Sales Activity Intensity™ has entered “surge” territory, indicating that homes are flying off the market faster than they have in months. With mortgage rates down and more homes hitting the market, it’s shaping up to be a hot fall season.


Detailed Explanation of the 3 Key Indicators
  1. Sales Activity Intensity:

    • Definition: This metric reflects the percentage of homes that go under contract within the first 30 days of listing. It's a direct indicator of the market's temperature, showing how quickly homes are moving from listing to pending status.
    • Scale:
          • <25%: Buyer's market – low demand, homes take longer to sell.
          • 25%: Healthy market – balanced demand and supply.
          • 35%: Strong market – increasing demand, sellers have a slight advantage.
          • 45%: Very strong market – high demand, multiple offers are common.
          • 55%: Surge – very high demand, significantly more buyers than available homes.
          • 65%: Frenzy – extreme demand, homes sell extremely quickly, often well above asking price.
          • 75%+: Extreme frenzy – unprecedented demand, highly competitive conditions.
    1. Monthly Inventory Levels:

      • Definition: This measures the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace without any new listings being added. It's a critical indicator of market balance.
      • Scale:
        • 0-1 month: Severe shortage – extremely low inventory, seller's market.
        • 1-2 months: Shortage – low inventory, strong seller's advantage.
        • 2-3 months: Low – less inventory, leaning towards sellers.
        • 3-4 months: Healthy – balanced between buyers and sellers.
        • 4-5 months: Selectability – more options for buyers, slight buyer's advantage.
        • 5+ months: Buyer's market – high inventory, buyers have leverage.
    2. Interest Rates:

      • Definition: This refers to the average mortgage rate available to homebuyers. Interest rates are a significant factor affecting affordability and buyer demand.
      • Scale (not a fixed scale but commonly accepted ranges):
        • 3-4%: Excellent – very favorable for buyers.
        • 5-6%: Good – relatively affordable for most buyers.
        • 7-8%: Uncomfortable – can slow down buyer activity as financing becomes more expensive.
        • 9-10%: Challenging – high rates can lead to decreased demand and slower market activity.

    Each of these indicators plays a crucial role in interpreting the dynamics of the Seattle housing market. By analyzing trends within these metrics, we can better understand the forces at play, predict future movements, and strategize accordingly. Whether you're looking to buy a home, sell one, or simply keep an eye on market developments, these indicators provide the insights needed to navigate the complexities of Seattle's real estate landscape.


    Sales Activity Intensity™

    Current Effect:
    56.1% of homes in Snohomish County went pending within the first 30 days in October—a sharp rise from last month’s 51.3%. This solid jump moves us into the “surge” category, where homes are getting snapped up quickly, thanks to increased buyer demand following the rate cut.

    What This Means:
    Buyers, competition is fierce. You need to act fast, as homes are still going pending at a rapid pace. Get pre-approved and be ready to make offers quickly.
    Sellers, this is still very much your market. With buyer activity on the rise, expect multiple offers, especially if your home is well-maintained and priced competitively.


    Key Stats:
    • Pending sales: 952 homes (up from 783 last year)
    • Average days on market: 25
    • Average sold price: $810,694

    Monthly Inventory Levels

    Current Effect:
    Inventory has edged up to 1.5 months, a slight increase from last month, but still firmly in the “shortage” range. More homes are hitting the market, but they’re also being scooped up quickly due to renewed buyer interest.

    What This Means:
    Buyers, you might see more options, but don’t get too comfortable—homes are still selling fast, and competition remains intense.
    Sellers, with inventory levels still tight, now is a great time to list, especially with the increase in buyer demand. Make sure your home stands out with competitive pricing and good staging.


    Key Stats:
    • Homes for sale: 1,726
    • New listings: 1,188
    • Closed sales: 916

    Interest Rates

    Current Effect:
    After the Fed’s rate cut, mortgage rates have dropped to 6.12%—a much-needed relief from last year’s highs of nearly 8%. This reduction has re-opened the door for many buyers who were previously priced out of the market. The impact? Increased affordability and more buyer activity.

    What This Means:
    Buyers, this is your chance to lock in a more affordable mortgage. With rates down, your purchasing power just increased—meaning you can afford more home for the same monthly payment.
    Sellers, lower rates mean more buyers back in the market, potentially leading to more offers on your listing. Be prepared for increased interest.


    Key Stats:
    • Current interest rate: 6.12%
    • Price per square foot: $419

    Overall Market Trends

    The Snohomish County housing market is gaining momentum as lower interest rates bring more buyers into the fray. With pending sales up 21.5% year-over-year and inventory still tight, sellers remain in a strong position. However, if more homes hit the market as predicted, the balance could shift slightly toward buyers in the coming months.


    Key Takeaways:
    • Sellers: The market is still in your favor, but with more listings coming online, make sure your home is well-priced to stay competitive.
    • Buyers: Don’t wait too long—lower rates mean more competition, so be ready to move quickly when you find the right home.

    Residential Resale, Condos & New Construction in Snohomish County

    Resale Residential Homes:
    The resale market remains hot, with homes selling quickly. The increase in inventory hasn’t dampened buyer enthusiasm much, but sellers may notice a bit more competition as more homes hit the market.

    Condominiums:
    Condos are also seeing increased demand, particularly among first-time buyers. Lower rates have made condo purchases more appealing, but buyers should still be cautious of HOA fees, which can impact overall affordability.

    New Construction:
    With financing costs lower, new construction is becoming a more attractive option for buyers. Builders may also benefit from this surge, as more buyers look for modern, energy-efficient homes in the current competitive landscape.


    The Fed’s Influence

    The 50 basis point rate cut has been a game-changer for the housing market. Lower rates have brought much-needed relief to buyers, many of whom were previously priced out by high mortgage costs. With rates expected to continue falling into 2025, this trend could boost buyer activity even further. However, inflationary pressures may limit how low rates can go, so now is a great time for both buyers and sellers to make their move.


    Seasonality

    The fall season typically signals a slowdown in real estate, but the Fed’s rate cuts have kept the market humming along. Sellers, expect strong offers if your home is in good condition and well-priced. Buyers, while more homes are becoming available, you’ll still need to act fast—competition remains tight.


    Strategic Insights for Buyers and Sellers

    For Sellers:

    • Prep Smart: With more listings coming online, you’ll need to make sure your home stands out through proper staging and pricing.
    • List Now: Buyer interest is on the rise, thanks to lower mortgage rates, so this is a great time to get your home on the market.

    For Buyers:

    • Get Pre-Approved: Lower rates mean more competition, so having your financing ready is critical for making a strong offer.
    • Negotiate Concessions: As more homes hit the market, some sellers might be willing to negotiate, especially if their home has been listed for a while. Look for opportunities to ask for closing cost contributions or rate buydowns.

    The Rent vs. Buy Conversation

    Rent prices in Snohomish County continue to rise, increasing 8.3% year-over-year, making buying a home an even more attractive option. If you’re currently renting, locking in a fixed mortgage rate at 6.12% could provide long-term financial stability. For example, the average rent for a three-bedroom home in Snohomish County is around $3,500 per month, which is roughly equivalent to the mortgage payment on a $680,000 home with today’s rates.

    What This Means:
    Buyers, purchasing a home now, even with slightly higher rates, can provide long-term equity growth and shield you from future rent hikes. Sellers, if you’ve been renting out property, now may be the time to cash in on rising property values.

    More listings. More transactions. Higher intensity ahead.

    September brought more listings and more transactions than this time last year. In the more affordable and mid-price ranges where 80% of transactions take place, we are currently experiencing a surge market which will result in an extreme frenzy of Sales Activity Intensity™ after the first of the year. Healthy job growth, lower interest rates, and an increase in the number of homebuyers entering the market is leading the way forward.J Lennox Scott


    LENNOX SCOTT

    CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate


    lennox scott ceo of john l scott
    Snohomish County Real Estate GRAPHS & Data

    SALES ACTIVITY AND INVENTORY


    sales activity

    With 1.5 months of supply if no other homes were listed in the next 45 days we would run out of houses to buy.

    If you are looking for homes over 1.5 mil you are seeing more inventory with 2.2 months supply.

    916 homes were sold in Snohomish County last month.

    As you can see from the table above anything below 5 months is considered low.  Low inventory means higher demand.  Higher demand drives the price up.

    In Snohomish County homes in the 350K-1mil price range are the most commonly listed and sold.

    DAYS ON MARKET

    sales intensity

    56.1% of homes are selling in less than 30 days in Snohomish County. A normal market is closer to 30%.

    Houses in the $500-750K price range are selling 63.7% of the time in the first 30 days.

    Because there are less homes for sale and there are still many buyers trying to buy… the homes that do list are usually selling fairly quickly.

    PRICE

    AVERAGE SALE PRICE: $810,694 

    SINGLE-FAMILY RESIDENTIAL:  $863,282

    CONDOS: $632,244

    AVERAGE SALES PRICE 5 YEARS AGO: $514,042

    % INCREASE OVER 5 YEAR SPAN: 57%

    LISTINGS SELLING COMPARED TO LIST PRICE: 97.1%

    TIMING
    yearly housing cycles

    As you can see from the John L. Scott 6 phases to a yearly house cycle chart we are solidly planted in the Fall market which typically signals a decline in intensity.

    JOB AND POPULATION GROWTH

    WHILE WE ARE NOT SURE HOW THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WILL END UP HERE IS THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION

    CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES


    Employment Rates

    WA Employment Security Department

    Where Counties are Growing[Source: U.S. Census Bureau]

    Snohomish County Housing Market Stats


    STATS PROVIDED BY: INFOSPARK

    • $810,694 was the average sold price for listings in Snohomish County.
    • 1,188 new listings went on the market this month.
    • 1,726 homes were for sale during the month.
    • 952 homes went pending in Snohomish County.
    • 916 homes sold this month
    • 1.5  months of inventory available in Snohomish County.
    • 25 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Snohomish County.
    • 99.7% was the average listing price vs. sales price percentage
    • $419 was the average price per square foot in Snohomish County.
    • $742,016,602 was the total closed sales volume for Snohomish County.
    • 6.12% was the interest rate
    • 56.1% of homes sold in the first 30 days in Snohomish County.
    • 13 Average showings to go Pending
    • 5.8 Showings per Listing

    SNOHOMISH COUNTY HOMES FOR SALE


    Image
    SEARCH SNOHOMISH COUNTY

    Snohomish County Housing Market Summary


    As we close out October 2024, the Snohomish County housing market remains robust and competitive, with some notable shifts driven by the recent Federal Reserve rate cut. The average sold price is holding steady at $810,694, reflecting sustained buyer demand despite ongoing affordability challenges. A total of 916 homes sold, and 952 went pending, indicating a 21.5% year-over-year increase in pending sales, largely fueled by the drop in mortgage rates.

    Inventory rose slightly to 1.5 months, but it’s still well within a seller’s market, where homes spend an average of 25 days on the market. Properties continue to command strong prices, with the average price per square foot at $419. Buyers remain active, with 56.1% of homes going pending within the first 30 days—solidly in “surge” territory, thanks in part to the more favorable financing environment following the Fed’s 50 basis point rate cut.

    Mortgage rates have dipped to 6.12%, down from last month’s 6.4%, which is providing a bit of relief for buyers and boosting purchasing power. However, affordability remains a challenge, particularly for first-time buyers. With 1,188 new listings and 1,726 homes for sale, buyers are getting slightly more options, but the competition remains tough.

    Sellers are still in a strong position, but the uptick in inventory means they should price their homes strategically and ensure they are market-ready. For buyers, the rate cuts present an opportunity, but quick action is necessary, as competition is still fierce.

    Overall, Snohomish County remains a seller’s market, but the shifts in inventory and interest rates are beginning to give buyers a little more leverage. Staying informed and prepared will be key to making the most of these changing dynamics as we head toward the end of the year.

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