SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

Home Prices, Interest Rates, Real Estate Statistics, Video and Charts

We Discuss Why We See An Increase In Sales Activity Intensity in the Seattle housing market for OCTOBER 2021

This article will be about the current and future state of the Seattle housing market. We’ll start with an infographic and some quick stats we think are important, then we’ll dive into what story the statistics are telling us.

Then you can check out my 60 second video pointing out the 3 key indicators and how they affect the market. Next we will hear from the 24th most influential person in real estate, Lennox Scott and what he sees happing in the Seattle market.

We will do a short breakdown on Sales Activity, Days on Market, Price, Interest Rates, Timing and Job and Population Growth.  A complete list of the MLS Infospark stats for Seattle.

Lastly, don't forget to check out the newest Seattle homes for sale.

The Seattle Housing Market At a Glance


Seattle housing market update infographic

Click Image For Full Size


Both Sold and Pending Homes counts are over 450 units higher than the same month pre-pandemic (2019).

The Seattle Housing Market Analysis For OCTOBER 2021


SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET REPORT QUICKSTATS

  • Average Sales Price DECREASED by $9k total to $902K
  • New Listings INCREASED to 1,589
  • Sold Homes DECREASED to 1,244 (+540 Same Month 2019)
  • Pending Sales INCREASED to 1,321 (+460 Same Month 2019)
  • Percentage of Sold Price to List Price DECREASED to 102.7%
  • Interest Rates INCREASED to an Unbelievable 3.10%
  • Home Inventory INCREASED to .9 Months of Supply

Every month we gather all the facts, data and statistics about the Seattle Housing Market and share them with you.  We will discuss the 3 major factors in determining the strength of the market.

    • Monthly Inventory Level
    • Percentage of Homes That Go Pending In First 30 Days
    • Current Interest Rates

The data tells a story about the current state of our local residential real estate market.


What this story tells me is...

Seattle home buyers are still hungry for more inventory but they are willing to wait for the right price a little longer.

As we have been talking about for a few months Seattle has the 2nd highest percentage of tech workers in the country.  Tech jobs bring people in from all over the world and tend to be come with an above average salary.  So what do tons of new people with above average salaries need when they get to Seattle, a place to live.

According to ApartmentList.com Seattle's median two-bedroom rent is $2,170 month.  Which equates to approximately a $460K townhome with 20% down on a 30 year fixed 3.10% interest rate loan.

We saw the number of new listings jump back up in September.  All the people that did not list during the pandemic, investors that are not interested in waiting for the rental moratorium to be lifted and people that want to take advantage of a once in a lifetime sellers market.

Despite having an above average number of new listings coming on the market our inventory level is at just .9 months of supply.

When you add the large number of high income tech workers with the unbelievable low interest rates and the desire for people to move into larger homes that accommodate all the at home activities that people have gotten used to it is easy to see how all those new listings continue to sell.

We are also seeing new investors enter the market as a popular new trend of turning rentals into VRBO's and Air BnB's continue to grow.

Although, we did see both the average sales price and the percentage of list price to sales price dip again this month.  Indicating that with the increased number of listings on the market buyers were not forced to enter into as many or as aggressive bidding wars as we have seen the last few months.

The majority of national economists predicted that the real estate market would pull up the economy, and we are seeing that play out.  There is a bit of concern about what will happen when the eviction moratoriums come to end, which is scheduled for October 30th.

Buyer indicators have never really declined, and we are continuing to see the seller indicators hit all time highs.

With still amazingly low interest rates, and a low level inventory the last couple of years the Seattle housing market should remain in the surge to frenzy status through the spring of 2022.

Although WA has essentially opened back up we continue to follow all state mandated safety guidelines and take extra precautions. We are focusing on delivering Virtual Real Estate Services.

Enjoy Our Seattle Housing Market Report in 60 Seconds Video

All Roads Lead to Higher Intensity Extreme frenzy Sales Activity Intensity™ continued in the Seattle area throughout the month of September, which supports premium pricing for new listings. The housing market intensity for each new listing will continue its upward trajectory as the first of the year approaches. In Seattle, the market is virtually sold out to the $3 million price point. Sales Activity Intensity™ is extreme frenzy for homes priced up to $2 million (96 percent of sales activity). The $2 to $3 million range has surge Sales Activity Intensity,™ and there is strong luxury sales activity from $3 to $5 million. J Lennox Scott

LENNOX SCOTT

CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate


Lennox Scott
Seattle Real Estate GRAPHS AND Data

SALES ACTIVITY AND INVENTORY


sales activity

With only .9 months of supply if no other homes were listed in the next 27 days we would run out of houses to buy.

There were 1,589 new listings in September.

If you are looking for homes from 0 -500k you are seeing slightly more inventory than $500k-$1million.

As you can see from the table above anything below 5 months of inventory is considered low.  Low inventory means higher demand.  Higher demand drives the price up.

1,244 homes were sold in Seattle last month. That is down 82 from the previous month, down 36 from last year, and up 90 from 5 years ago.

In the Seattle housing market homes in the 500k-1m+ price range typically sell the fastest.

DAYS ON MARKET

days on market

734% of homes are selling in less than 30 days in the Seattle housing market. That number is usually closer to 30%.

Houses in the 750K-1mil price range are selling 78.6% of the time in the first 30 days.

Because there are less homes for sale and there are still many buyers trying to buy… the homes that do list are usually selling very fast.

PRICE

AVERAGE SALE PRICE: $902,824

SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL:  $1,005,826

CONDOS:  $595,190

We have already seen where a low inventory should drive up prices. The average sale price for Seattle homes is $902,824. In comparison 5 years ago the average sales price was $672,1447. a 36% increase in equity.

Listings are selling at 102.7% of their list price on average.

INTEREST RATES

interest rates

In order for it to be a sellers market there must be buyers.

With the interest rates at the Unbelievable rate of 3.10% a .18% increase from last month (source: Mortgage News Daily), there are plenty of buyers that are in the Seattle housing market.

TIMING

6 Phases to yearly housing cycle

As you can see from the John L. Scott 6 phases to a yearly house cycle chart we should start to see the slow down a bit over the next month.

If you’re a buyer you will want to position yourself to create a buyer advantage when competing with other buyers and walk in confidence when making an offer. We can consult with you to be up-to-date with current market intensity and pricing, get pre-approved or fully underwritten through a lender, and receive email/text notification of newly listed properties.

In today’s instant-response market, it’s key to ensure you’re ready to act when the timing is right and make sure you are Buyer Ready Day One.

Sellers should be Market Ready Day One.


JOB AND POPULATION GROWTH
WHILE WE ARE NOT SURE HOW THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WILL END UP HERE IS THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION

CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

wa unemployement rates

WA Employment Security Department

As you can see from the charts above unemployment is still  slightly higher than it was prior to the event.

Population

"After six consecutive years in the top 2 for growth among the 50 most-populous U.S. cities — that includes a No. 1 showing in 2013 — Seattle dropped to sixth place in 2019." (Seattle Times)

Seattle Market Stats


STATS PROVIDED BY: INFOSPARK

  • $902,824 was the average sold price for listings in Seattle.
  • 1,589 new listings went on the market this month.
  • 1,471 homes were for sale during the month.
  • 1,321 homes went pending in Seattle.
  • 1,244 homes sold this month
  • .9 months of inventory available in Seattle
  • 21 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Seattle
  • 102.7% was the average listing price vs. sales price percentage
  • $565 was the average price per square foot in Seattle
  • $1,119,501,77 was the total closed sales volume for Seattle
  • 3.1% was the interest rate
  • 74% of homes sold in the first 30 days in Seattle

SEATTLE HOMES FOR SALE


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SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET Summary


The Seattle Housing Market saw 1,589 new listings, 1,471 homes were for sale, while 1,244 homes sold in September in Seattle.

The average days on market increased to 21 days, the percentage of sale price to listing price decreased to 102.7%, and the average sales price decreased. The percentage of homes that sold in the first 30 days is 74% indicating an Extreme Frenzy Market. Inventory is at .89 months of supply indicating a Severe Shortage.

Despite the crisis, with interest rates low, buyers are out there.

We should continue to see a surging to frenzy market through the Spring of 2022.

Now seems to be an amazing time to sell your home as we are still seeing historically low inventory and high prices.

If you are considering a move up, a move down, or just want to sell your home… Months of inventory is still at well below average.  Homes are selling at a rapid pace, the Interest Rates are still at below average lows.

The jury is still out on the job market and population growth.

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