SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET FORECAST
Home Prices, Interest Rates, Real Estate Statistics, Video and Charts
We Discuss The New Year Housing Kick-Off For the Seattle Housing Market in January 2022
This article will be about the current and future state of the Seattle area housing market. We’ll start with our 60 second video discussing the 3 key indicators and how they affect the market.
Then an infographic and some quick stats we think are important, then we’ll dive into what story the statistics are telling us.
Next we will hear from the 24th most influential person in real estate, Lennox Scott and what he sees happing in the Seattle market.
We will do a short breakdown on Sales Activity, Days on Market, Price, Interest Rates, Timing and Job and Population Growth. A complete list of the MLS Infospark stats for Seattle housing market trends.
Lastly, don't forget to check out the newest Seattle homes for sale.
The Seattle Housing Market At a Glance
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
The Seattle Housing Market Analysis For JANUARY 2022
SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET REPORT QUICKSTATS
- Average Sales Price DECREASED by $40k total to $880K
- New Listings DECREASED to 496
- Sold Homes DECREASED to 989
- Pending Sales DECREASED to 708
- Percentage of Sold Price to List Price DECREASED to 102%
- Interest Rates INCREASED to an Unbelievable 3.29%
- Home Inventory DECREASED to .6 Months of Supply
Every month we gather all the facts, data and statistics about the Seattle Housing Market and share them with you. We will discuss the 3 major factors in determining the strength of the market.
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- Monthly Inventory Level
- Percentage of Homes That Go Pending In First 30 Days
- Current Interest Rates
The data tells a story about the current state of our local residential real estate market.
What we are seeing is a more seasonally average winter market with sellers and a more post pandemic buyers market.
What we mean is that we traditionally see less listings put on the market during the winter months, like we saw in December with only 496 new listings coming on the market. Compare this to 1,822 new listings in June. We traditionally also see fewer buyers in the market during the winter months as people travel, adapt to school being out and avoid being out in the weather.
The combination of unbelievable interest rates, a strong job market and a large increase in both home equity and assets over the last couple of years has created what we call a backlog of buyers. This is evidenced by the .6 months of housing inventory or we call an extreme shortage.
There are other factors at work such as the astronomically high rents in Seattle.
According to ApartmentList.com Seattle's median two-bedroom rent for an apartment is $3,452 month. Which equates to approximately a $720K home with 20% down on a 30 year fixed 3.29% interest rate loan.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics recently reported the US inflation rate rose to 6.8% the highest it has been since 1982. The best hedge for inflation is real estate. As we are seeing public figures like Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos buy real estate at an extraordinary rate.
As we have been talking about for a few months Seattle has the 2nd highest percentage of tech workers in the country. Tech jobs bring people in from all over the world and tend to be come with an above average salary. So what do tons of new people with above average salaries need when they get to Seattle, a place to live.
When you add the large number of high income tech workers with the unbelievable low interest rates and the desire for people to move into larger homes that accommodate all the at home activities that people have gotten used to it is easy to see how we have a backlog of buyers.
The Mortgage Bankers Association estimates that rates will rise to 4% by the end of 2022.
As the rates creep higher we should see the buying pool thin out. Until that happens the levels of new inventory level out and the levels of new buyers stay above average we should continue to see record low levels of inventory and a uber-frenzied market through March of 2022.
Although WA has essentially opened back up we continue to follow all state mandated safety guidelines and take extra precautions. We are focusing on delivering Virtual Real Estate Services.
New Year Housing Kick-Off2022 is here, and January 1 marked a historically low level of available unsold inventory in Seattle. Fresh off the heels of the holiday season and snowy weather, the local market will see continued strong buyer demand, multiple offers and premium pricing. The Seattle market is virtually sold out up to the $2 million price point. Sales Activity Intensity™ is predominantly extreme frenzy for homes priced up to $3 million, and there is selective luxury activity above $3 million. J Lennox Scott
LENNOX SCOTT
CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate
Seattle Real Estate GRAPHS AND Data
With only .6 months of supply if no other homes were listed in the next 18 days we would run out of houses to buy.
There were 496 new listings in December.
If you are looking for homes from 0 -500k you are seeing slightly more inventory than $500k-$1million.
As you can see from the table above anything below 5 months of inventory is considered low. Low inventory means higher demand. Higher demand drives the price up.
989 homes were sold in Seattle last month. That is down 169 from the previous month, down 41 from last year, and up 81 from 5 years ago.
In the Seattle housing market homes in the 500k-1m+ price range typically sell the fastest.
DAYS ON MARKET
77% of homes are selling in less than 30 days in the Seattle housing market. That number is usually closer to 30%.
Houses in the 750K-1mil price range are selling 86% of the time in the first 30 days.
Because there are less homes for sale and there are still many buyers trying to buy… the homes that do list are usually selling very fast.
PRICE
AVERAGE SALE PRICE: $880,175
SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENTIAL: $966,113
CONDOS: $567,317
We have already seen where a low inventory should drive up prices. The average sale price for Seattle homes is $880,175. In comparison 5 years ago the average sales price was $656,033 a 66% increase in equity.
Listings are selling at 102% of their list price on average.
TIMING
As you can see from the John L. Scott 6 phases to a yearly house cycle chart we should be in a big slow down in new resale listings and that is playing out this year.
If you’re a buyer you will want to position yourself to create a buyer advantage when competing with other buyers and walk in confidence when making an offer. We can consult with you to be up-to-date with current market intensity and pricing, get pre-approved or fully underwritten through a lender, and receive email/text notification of newly listed properties.
In today’s instant-response market, it’s key to ensure you’re ready to act when the timing is right and make sure you are Buyer Ready Day One.
Sellers should be Market Ready Day One.
JOB AND POPULATION GROWTH
WHILE WE ARE NOT SURE HOW THE EMPLOYMENT NUMBERS WILL END UP HERE IS THE CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT SITUATION
CURRENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATES
WA Employment Security Department
As you can see from the charts above unemployment has evened out over the last year.
"After six consecutive years in the top 2 for growth among the 50 most-populous U.S. cities — that includes a No. 1 showing in 2013 — Seattle dropped to sixth place in 2019." (Seattle Times)
Seattle Market Stats
STATS PROVIDED BY: INFOSPARK
- $880,175 was the average sold price for listings in Seattle.
- 496 new listings went on the market this month.
- 564 homes were for sale during the month.
- 708 homes went pending in Seattle.
- 989 homes sold this month
- .6 months of inventory available in Seattle
- 26 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Seattle
- 102% was the average listing price vs. sales price percentage
- $560 was the average price per square foot in Seattle
- $869,612,666 was the total closed sales volume for Seattle
- 3.29% was the interest rate
- 78% of homes sold in the first 30 days in Seattle
SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET Summary
The Seattle Housing Market saw 496 new listings, 564 homes were for sale, while 989 homes sold in December in Seattle.
The average days on market stayed even at 26 days, the percentage of sale price to listing price decreased to 102%, and the average sales price decreased. The percentage of homes that sold in the first 30 days is 78% indicating an Extreme Frenzy Market. Inventory is at .6 months of supply indicating a Severe Shortage.
Despite the crisis, with interest rates low, buyers are out there.
We should continue to see a surging to frenzy market through the Spring of 2022.
Now seems to be an amazing time to sell your home as we are still seeing historically low inventory and high prices.
If you are considering a move up, a move down, or just want to sell your home… Months of inventory is still at well below average. Homes are selling at a rapid pace, the Interest Rates are still at below average lows.
The jury is still out on the job market and population growth.
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