SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET FORECAST

Home Prices, Interest Rates, Real Estate Statistics, Video and Charts

The Seattle Housing Market At a Glance

Seattle housing market update infographic

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3 KEY INDICATORS
Seattle Housing Market

  1. SALES ACTIVITY INTENSITY:
    • 51.7% (VERY STRONG)
  2. INTEREST RATE:
    • 6.91% (MANAGEABLE)
  3. INVENTORY LEVEL:
    • 2.2 Months (LOW)

THE BIG DEAL
Winter Cleanup Season! As the supply of new resale listings dips during the colder months, unsold inventory is steadily being absorbed. This seasonal cleanup sets the stage for a dynamic first quarter of 2025, as each new resale listing will likely attract heightened buyer interest. With a strong Sales Activity Intensity™ of 51.7%, the market remains lively, even as the calendar winds down. This December, buyers and sellers alike are gearing up for what promises to be an active start to the new year.

Enjoy Our Seattle Housing Market Report Video


Seattle Housing Market Report for December 2024: Winter Cleanup, Strong Demand & Manageable Rates


"Did you know over 51% of Seattle homes are selling within 30 days this December? Talk about fast-moving inventory!"

As we settle into December 2024, Seattle's housing market is buzzing despite the chill in the air. Winter Cleanup Season is in full swing, clearing out unsold inventory while demand continues to heat up. For sellers, this is a golden opportunity to stand out with less competition. For buyers, it’s time to stay sharp and act fast in a competitive environment.

This report breaks down the key trends shaping Seattle real estate today, from demand intensity to inventory levels and interest rates. Whether you’re considering selling your home or just keeping an eye on the market, here’s what you need to know.


Detailed Explanation of the 3 Key Indicators
  1. Sales Activity Intensity:

    • Definition: This metric reflects the percentage of homes that go under contract within the first 30 days of listing. It's a direct indicator of the market's temperature, showing how quickly homes are moving from listing to pending status.
    • Scale:
          • <25%: Buyer's market – low demand, homes take longer to sell.
          • 25%: Healthy market – balanced demand and supply.
          • 35%: Strong market – increasing demand, sellers have a slight advantage.
          • 45%: Very strong market – high demand, multiple offers are common.
          • 55%: Surge – very high demand, significantly more buyers than available homes.
          • 65%: Frenzy – extreme demand, homes sell extremely quickly, often well above asking price.
          • 75%+: Extreme frenzy – unprecedented demand, highly competitive conditions.
    1. Monthly Inventory Levels:

      • Definition: This measures the number of months it would take to sell all current listings at the current sales pace without any new listings being added. It's a critical indicator of market balance.
      • Scale:
        • 0-1 month: Severe shortage – extremely low inventory, seller's market.
        • 1-2 months: Shortage – low inventory, strong seller's advantage.
        • 2-3 months: Low – less inventory, leaning towards sellers.
        • 3-4 months: Healthy – balanced between buyers and sellers.
        • 4-5 months: Selectability – more options for buyers, slight buyer's advantage.
        • 5+ months: Buyer's market – high inventory, buyers have leverage.
    2. Interest Rates:

      • Definition: This refers to the average mortgage rate available to homebuyers. Interest rates are a significant factor affecting affordability and buyer demand.
      • Scale (not a fixed scale but commonly accepted ranges):
        • 3-4%: Excellent – very favorable for buyers.
        • 5-6%: Good – relatively affordable for most buyers.
        • 7-8%: Uncomfortable – can slow down buyer activity as financing becomes more expensive.
        • 9-10%: Challenging – high rates can lead to decreased demand and slower market activity.

    Each of these indicators plays a crucial role in interpreting the dynamics of the Seattle housing market. By analyzing trends within these metrics, we can better understand the forces at play, predict future movements, and strategize accordingly. Whether you're looking to buy a home, sell one, or simply keep an eye on market developments, these indicators provide the insights needed to navigate the complexities of Seattle's real estate landscape.


    Sales Activity Intensity™

    Current Effect:
    Sales Activity Intensity™ in Seattle is at an impressive 51.7%, up from 46.4% last month. This means over half of the homes listed are going pending within the first 30 days. Homes are spending an average of 32 days on the market, with 16 showings before going pending. This marks the market as “very strong,” even during a typically slower winter season.

    What This Means:

    • For Buyers: The competition is fierce! With over half the homes selling within a month, you’ll need to act quickly and come prepared with a pre-approval letter and a clear understanding of your budget.
    • For Sellers: This is a prime time to sell. Take advantage of strong buyer demand by pricing your home strategically and investing in professional staging to attract serious offers.

    Monthly Inventory Levels

    Current Effect:
    Inventory remains tight at 2.2 months, a slight increase from November’s 2.1 months but still firmly in the "low" category. While 643 new listings hit the market, the total number of available homes remains insufficient to meet buyer demand.

    What This Means:

    • For Buyers: Options are limited, and desirable homes are selling quickly. Stay persistent and be prepared to compromise on certain features or negotiate creatively.
    • For Sellers: Low inventory gives you the upper hand. A well-priced, move-in-ready home will attract significant interest and likely generate multiple offers.

    Interest Rates

    Current Effect:
    The average mortgage rate in December sits at 6.91%, slightly higher than November’s 6.87%. Although these rates are higher than those seen in 2020–2021, they are manageable compared to historical norms. That said, higher rates are impacting buyers' purchasing power and monthly payments.

    What This Means:

    • For Buyers: Lock in your rate as soon as possible to avoid future increases. Explore options like rate buy-downs or adjustable-rate mortgages to improve affordability.
    • For Sellers: Consider offering rate concessions to make your home more attractive to rate-sensitive buyers. This small incentive could give you a competitive edge.

    Overall Market Trends

    Seattle’s housing market remains active despite the seasonal slowdown. With low inventory, very strong Sales Activity Intensity™, and rising rates, sellers are benefiting from high demand, while buyers are working to adapt to the competitive conditions.


    Key Takeaways

    For Sellers:

    1. Stage and Price Right: Homes that are clean, staged, and priced competitively are seeing the most success.
    2. Capitalize on Low Inventory: Fewer homes on the market means less competition. List your property now to attract motivated buyers.

    For Buyers:

    1. Stay Pre-Approved: A pre-approval letter is critical to making a strong offer in this fast-paced market.
    2. Negotiate Creatively: Ask sellers about rate buy-downs or closing cost assistance to make a higher interest rate more manageable.

    Residential Resale, Condos & New Construction

    Resale Residential Homes:

    The average sale price for Seattle homes in December is $976,366, with a sales-to-list price ratio of 99.3%, meaning homes are selling close to asking price. Homes are averaging 32 days on the market, so sellers should prepare for quick transactions.

    Condominiums:

    Condos remain a more affordable entry point for buyers, especially first-time buyers. However, buyers should carefully consider HOA fees, which can significantly affect monthly expenses.

    New Construction:

    New builds continue to attract buyers seeking modern amenities and energy-efficient designs. Builders offering incentives like rate buy-downs or upgrades may see a quicker sales pace in this rate-sensitive market.


    The Fed’s Influence

    The Federal Reserve's monetary policies remain a key factor in shaping mortgage rates. While the current rate of 6.91% is manageable, any future rate increases could further impact affordability. Buyers are encouraged to act sooner rather than later to lock in their rates before potential hikes.


    Seasonality

    Winter is typically a quieter time in real estate, but Seattle’s market is bucking the trend. With unsold inventory being absorbed and fewer new listings hitting the market, competition remains strong. For sellers, this means less competition. For buyers, it’s an opportunity to find motivated sellers who are eager to close before the end of the year.


    Strategic Insights for Buyers and Sellers

    For Sellers:

    1. Stage & Price Competitively: Even in a strong market, buyers are price-conscious. Well-presented homes tend to attract more interest and better offers.
    2. List Now to Capture Demand: Don’t wait until spring—buyers are still active, and low inventory gives you an edge.

    For Buyers:

    1. Get Pre-Approved: Knowing your budget and being ready to act are essential in a fast-paced market.
    2. Negotiate Seller Concessions: Many sellers are open to offering incentives like closing cost assistance or rate buy-downs to seal the deal.

    The Rent vs. Buy Conversation

    With rental prices in Seattle up by 8.3% year-over-year, buying is becoming an increasingly attractive option for those planning to stay long-term. The average rent for a three-bedroom home hovers around $3,825, similar to the monthly mortgage on a $700,000 home with current rates. Buying can provide financial stability and long-term equity growth, making it a strategic choice for many Seattle residents.

    Strong Year Ahead for the Housing Market

    We are ending the year where we started as interest rates lower into the 6’s.

    Going into 2025 with a lower interest rate projects a higher number of transactions as more buyers enter the market.

    For more details or a copy of the 2025 Housing Forecast (coming mid-December), contact your John L. Scott broker. J Lennox Scott


    LENNOX SCOTT

    CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate


    Lennox Scott
    Seattle Real Estate GRAPHS AND Data

    SALES ACTIVITY AND INVENTORY



    sales activity intensity

    With 2.2 months of supply, if no additional homes were listed, Seattle would run out of houses to buy in just over 66 days. This low inventory level continues to drive competition among buyers.

    In December, 643 new listings hit the market, and 658 homes were sold—a testament to how quickly homes are moving. Properties in the $500k to $1M+ range continue to sell the fastest, reflecting strong demand in this mid-market price segment.

    If you’re shopping for homes priced at $2M+, you’ll find slightly more inventory compared to the $500k–$1M range. However, competition remains robust across all price points, especially in high-demand neighborhoods.

    Why Does Low Inventory Matter?

    • Inventory below 5 months is considered “low,” and Seattle’s 2.2 months of supply keeps it firmly in a seller’s market.
    • Low supply fuels higher demand, which, in turn, helps sustain or even increase home prices.

    Key Takeaway:
    For buyers, acting quickly is essential—homes are selling at a steady pace, and competition is fierce, particularly in the $500k–$1M price range. For sellers, the ongoing inventory shortage means favorable conditions to secure competitive offers.

    MARKET INTENSITY

    sales activity index

    In December, 51.7% of homes in the Seattle housing market are going pending within the first 30 days—well above the typical 30% median market intensity. This reflects the ongoing demand and competition, even as we move through the quieter winter season.

    Luxury homes in the $1.5M to $2M range are performing especially well, with an impressive 59.8% selling within the first 30 days.

    While there are slightly more homes available compared to earlier months, buyer demand remains strong. The homes that do hit the market are still selling quickly, making it critical for buyers to be prepared to act fast and for sellers to leverage this momentum with strategic pricing and presentation.

    PRICE

    • Average Sale Price (December 2024): $1,093,931
      • Single-Family Residential: $1,112,712
      • Condos: $612,001

    Looking back 5 years to December 2019:

    • Average Sale Price: $789,329
    • Single-Family Residential: $851,000
    • Condos: $524,777

    This represents a 38.5% increase in overall home values, with single-family homes rising 30.7% and condos climbing 16.6%.

    List-to-Sale Price Ratio: Homes are selling at 99.3% of their list price, demonstrating continued demand and competitive offers in today’s market.

    Key Takeaway:
    Seattle’s real estate market remains a solid investment, with significant equity growth over the past five years. Whether you’re selling or buying, understanding these pricing trends can help you make informed decisions.

    TIMING


    JOB AND POPULATION GROWTH

    yearly housing cycles

    According to the John L. Scott 6 Phases of the Yearly Housing Cycle, we are now firmly in the Winter Market, the slowest period of the year for real estate activity. This seasonal slowdown is characterized by fewer new listings and reduced overall buyer activity.

    However, even in this quieter phase, motivated buyers remain active, especially with Seattle’s limited inventory and high demand. For sellers, this can mean less competition, while buyers may find opportunities to negotiate with those eager to close before the year-end.


    unemployment rates

    WA Employment Security Department

    Where Counties are Growing[Source: U.S. Census Bureau]


    Seattle Market Stats

    STATS PROVIDED BY: INFOSPARK

    • $976,366 | was the average sold price for listings in Seattle.
    • 643 new listings went on the market this month.
    • 1,858 homes were for sale during the month.
    • 672 homes went pending in Seattle.
    • 658 homes sold this month
    • 2.2 months of inventory available in Seattle
    • 32 was the average days on market for a home to sell in Seattle
    • 99.3% was the average listing price vs. sales price percentage
    • $567 was the average price per square foot in Seattle
    • $642,162,940  was the total closed sales volume for Seattle
    • 6.91% was the interest rate
    • 51.7% of homes sold in the first 30 days in Seattle
    • 16 Average showings to Pending
    • 4.7 Showings per Listing

    SEATTLE HOMES FOR SALE



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    SEATTLE HOUSING MARKET Summary


    As we wrap up our analysis of the Seattle housing market for December 2024, it’s clear that competition remains strong, even in the heart of the winter cycle. Homes are selling in about 32 days on average, with a 99.3% list-to-sales price ratio. Sales Activity Intensity™ has surged to 51.7%, meaning more than half of all homes go pending within 30 days—a clear sign that demand continues to outpace supply.

    Despite 643 new listings entering the market, inventory remains low at 2.2 months, underscoring the persistent supply shortage. Buyers are actively competing for limited inventory, keeping sellers in a favorable position. That said, sellers must stay mindful of pricing and presentation to attract motivated buyers in this highly competitive market.

    The notable factor this month is the interest rate, which has risen slightly to 6.91%. While higher rates can impact affordability for some buyers, Seattle’s demand remains resilient. Motivated buyers are still stepping up, locking in homes and rates ahead of potential future increases.

    Looking ahead, buyers should be ready to move decisively and explore creative financing options to navigate rate challenges. Sellers can continue to benefit from high demand, but competitive pricing and strong presentation remain key to securing the best offers. As Seattle’s housing market moves through winter, it’s still vibrant and fast-paced, with strong fundamentals setting the stage for a dynamic start to 2025.

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